While new administrations have been held captive to a 100-day agenda timeline, in January of this year House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-WI) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) laid out an ambitious 200-day agenda for Congress. When the 100-day mark of President Trump’s term came around in April, the Republican leaders reiterated that they were more focused on their 200-day agenda. The agenda the Republican leaders outlined in January included some specific timelines:
- Pass repeal and replace legislation for Obamacare and send it to President Trump by early April
- Pass a defense and border wall supplemental funding bill by April
- Pass an infrastructure bill by early summer
- Complete a tax overhaul and revamp of the IRS by August
The 200-day mark falls on August 7th. When Congress returns next week, the House is scheduled to be in session 31 days before the August recess while the Senate is scheduled to be in session 35 days. Here’s what House and Senate Republicans want to accomplish during those seven weeks, as well as the hurdles they will potentially face.
Repealing and Replacing “Obamacare”
Republicans are trying to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act otherwise known as “Obamacare;” and they are trying to do this without Democratic votes. But divisions within their own party aren’t making it easy.
The House passed its bill to repeal and replace the 2010 health care law on May 4. Senate leadership staff met this week with Senate staff on three committees to begin drafting the Senate bill, as they do not plan on taking up the House-passed measure. A discussion draft may be available as early as next week. Their goal is to finish work on their bill by the August recess.
They need to move quickly because they are using FY17 budget reconciliation instructions, which allow them to pass the bill by a simple majority vote in the Senate and avoid a Democratic filibuster. But it’s unclear how long the FY17 reconciliation vehicle will last. The Senate parliamentarian has not yet ruled if reconciliation instructions expire at the end of the fiscal year on September 30. And the Senate wants to get moving on an FY18 budget resolution with reconciliation instructions to move a tax reform bill. The House and Senate will have to complete a final conferenced health care repeal and replace bill before they can complete the conference on an FY18 budget resolution.
FY18 Budget Resolution
The House and Senate want to pass an FY18 budget resolution for a number of reasons. First, this year sequestration cuts set by the 2011 Budget Control Act are back in effect. Congress will have to decide if they want to offset those in some ways in order to raise the defense and nondefense spending caps for FY18. Second, as mentioned above, Republicans want to include reconciliation instructions for tax reform in an FY18 budget resolution. Reconciliation allows the Senate to consider a measure through special budget rules that only require a simple majority for passage and don’t allow for a filibuster by the minority party. Finally, Republicans criticized Democrats when they controlled Congress for going years without adopting a budget. Then they were unable to adopt a budget resolution in FY17 when they controlled both the House and Senate. While they didn’t suffer at the polls because of this, they would like to avoid giving Democrats opposition talking points. The House plans to unveil its FY18 budget plans in mid-June and hopes to pass a resolution before the July 4th recess. The House is likely to have an easier time with a budget resolution than the Senate.
Tax Reform
Republicans want to reform the tax code for the first time in decades, but they are trying to do it without support from Democrats. They need the FY18 budget resolution’s reconciliation instructions to do this, but they can’t do that until they finish repealing and replacing “Obamacare.” While tax reform is a ways off in either chamber, Republicans are eager to show some progress. Speaker Ryan is still pushing a border adjustment tax that would tax imports and exempt exports, but that proposal is facing opposition from conservative groups, retailers, and fellow Republicans. Republicans need to find a way to pay for their tax reform proposal if they don’t want to add to the deficit. Without the border adjustment tax, they will have to find a pay for to offset the tax rate cuts that Republicans want included in their tax reform measure.
Raising the Debt Limit
Last week the Trump administration informed Congress that they would have to approve a debt ceiling increase sooner than expected. The Treasury Department said it needs to be raised before the August recess. While Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said they wanted a “clean” debt ceiling hike with no strings attached, OMB Director Mick Mulvaney contradicted Mnuchin saying that he favors attaching spending reforms to any increase in the federal debt ceiling. Mulvaney said that Mnuchin’s comments did not necessarily represent the position of the administration.
Conservative groups want to tie spending cuts to a debt ceiling bill and have discussed several options:
- Pairing a debt limit increase with prioritizing the payment of interest in case the debt limit is not raised.
- A balanced budget amendment.
- Caps on mandatory spending.
- Extending the sequester.
- Adding work requirements to government assistance programs.
- Matching any debt limit increase with spending cuts, as was done with the 2011 deficit reduction law.
Republicans will probably need Democrats’ support to pass a clean measure. However, Senate Democrats may push for their own concessions (health care or FY18 spending caps) if their votes will be needed to avoid a government default.
FY18 Appropriations Bills
Congress is behind schedule on the FY18 appropriations process, and there is little time for them to pass each of the 12 spending bills separately on the House and Senate floors given their other priorities. In order to avoid a government shutdown on October 1, Rep. Tom Graves (R-GA) raised the possibility of the House approving an omnibus appropriations bill before the August recess. Republicans will likely need Democrats support to pass the FY18 spending bills. And while President Trump called for a “good shutdown” to fix the “mess” in Washington, Republicans in Congress want to avoid a shutdown.
This ambitious summer agenda means that an infrastructure investment bill will be delayed. But moving up the debt ceiling debate and FY18 spending bills from the fall to this summer could free up some time later this year for transportation issues. The White House is expected to release details on their infrastructure plan next week. One transportation issue that will definitely get attention this fall is the FAA reauthorization bill, which Congress has to pass or extend before it expires on September 30.